Navigating the Uncertainty: What the Proposed U.S. Truck Tariffs Mean for the Industry

Truck Tariff Turmoil: What the Proposed 25% Duties Could Mean for North American Trucking

The trucking and manufacturing sectors are on edge following an announcement from the current administration of plans to impose a 25% tariff on medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles (MHCVs).  While the announcement was made weeks ago, the tariff details remain unclear — and without a published executive order, the measure has yet to take effect.

The proposed tariffs, introduced under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, could have far-reaching implications for North America’s highly integrated commercial vehicle market.  With the U.S., Mexico, and Canada deeply intertwined under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), industry stakeholders are now left grappling with uncertainty.

A Waiting Game: Tariff Details Still Unclear

Although the current administration indicated the tariffs would begin on October 1 — later pushing the date to November 1 — there has still been no official publication in the Federal Register.  Until that happens, the tariffs remain only a proposal.

Even so, manufacturers, importers, and fleets are already assessing what these tariffs could mean for pricing, production, and sourcing.  One key question is whether USMCA-compliant trucks and components will be subject to tariffs based only on non-U.S. value content — as is currently the case for light-duty vehicles — or on the full value of imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks.

The answer could dramatically affect cross-border trade.  With major manufacturing facilities and supply networks spread across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, even small policy shifts can have ripple effects throughout the logistics ecosystem.

Manufacturers Hit the Brakes

Data from S&P Global Mobility reveals that production of medium- and heavy-duty trucks has already slowed significantly in 2025.  North American MHCV output fell 30% year-over-year in recent months, following a 22% drop earlier in the year.  Analysts cite both weak market demand and concerns about the proposed tariffs as contributing factors.

Interestingly, production cuts have been deeper in Mexico, where MHCV output is down more than 40% year-over-year, compared to about 20% in the U.S.  This uneven slowdown may reflect shifting sourcing strategies, as manufacturers look to move more production stateside in anticipation of tariff costs.

Still, the broader market remains fragile.  Fleet operators — many of whom delayed orders during 2024’s economic slowdown — are not yet in a position to absorb major price hikes.  For now, MHCV prices have increased less than 2% year-over-year, far below the 10% worst-case projections.  That could change by 2026 if tariffs take hold and suppliers begin passing on costs.

Tariff Tensions Beyond U.S. Borders

The uncertainty doesn’t stop at the U.S. border.  Mexico is considering its own trade policy changes through proposed legislation known as LIGIE (Ley de los Impuestos Generales de Importación y de Exportación).  This initiative would raise tariffs on imports from countries without free trade agreements — targeting nations such as China, India, Russia, and South Korea.

If enacted, Mexico’s tariff adjustments could take effect in January 2026 and impact more than $50 billion in imports, further complicating the regional trade landscape.  For the commercial vehicle sector, this could increase costs for imported parts and vehicles from those non-FTA countries — particularly for Chinese-built components commonly used by North American brands.

Meanwhile, discussions between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico on interim trade agreements have reportedly stalled, leaving businesses little clarity as they prepare for a potential shakeup in 2026 when the USMCA comes up for review.

What Comes Next

Between now and November 1, the industry is looking to the current administration for clarity.  A finalized executive order would at least provide direction on whether the 25% truck tariffs will move forward and which vehicles and components will be affected.

Until then, manufacturers and logistics providers are left to manage uncertainty — recalibrating sourcing strategies, monitoring costs, and preparing contingency plans.

For fleets and shippers, this uncertainty underscores the importance of partnering with carriers who prioritize security, visibility, and risk mitigation.

At Road Scholar Transport, we understand that disruptions — whether from tariffs, supply chain shifts, or evolving trade policy — can have costly ripple effects.  Our high-security shipping solutions, advanced tracking, and layered protection systems help safeguard cargo and maintain supply chain integrity, no matter how unpredictable the market becomes.

Bottom Line

The proposed 25% truck tariffs may still be on hold, but their potential impact is already being felt.  From manufacturing slowdowns to shifting trade alliances, the next few months will be pivotal for the North American trucking industry.  As the landscape evolves, those best prepared to adapt — and to protect their assets — will emerge stronger on the other side.