2026 Trucking Forecast: A Year of Transition, Not Boom
As we head into 2026, the trucking industry appears set for a period of cautious stabilization — not explosive growth, but a structural recalibration. 1 What’s Driving the Outlook • Capacity Correction & Fleet Renewal Production of Class 8 heavy trucks remains subdued. OEMs (truck manufacturers) have signaled reduced daily builds and fewer new orders going into 2026. 2 Rather than expanding, many carriers plan to maintain their existing fleets — focusing on replacing older trucks to preserve reliability rather than aggressively growing capacity. 3 As excess capacity shrinks and weaker carriers exit the market, this may gradually rebalance supply and demand — setting the stage for a leaner, more efficient industry. 4 • Cost Inflation and Rate Pressure Operational costs continue to squeeze carriers. According to a recent survey, non-fuel operating costs rose nearly 4% year-over-year in 2024 (on top of severa...