How Trucking Could Benefit from China’s 34% Tariff on U.S. Imports

While tariffs are often viewed as negative for global trade, the trucking industry can experience a counterintuitive lift from the supply chain disruptions they cause — particularly when shippers rush to beat deadlines, shift sourcing strategies, or pivot inventory movements.  Here’s how those ripple effects could drive higher freight demand and operational opportunities for U.S. trucking carriers:

1. Pre-Tariff Shipping Surge = Short-Term Freight Boom

As U.S. exporters rush to move goods to China before the April 10 deadline, there's an increase in:

  • Port drayage and transloading: Increased container movement into ports like Los Angeles/Long Beach, Seattle-Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Savannah, and Houston will create heightened demand for local drayage operators and regional carriers.
  • Over-the-road (OTR) trucking: Products like agriculture, machinery, and electronics being exported require transportation from production hubs (e.g., Midwest, Southeast) to export terminals, boosting long-haul freight volume.
  • Air cargo logistics support: With more shippers turning to air freight to beat the clock, trucking capacity is needed at airports (especially LAX, JFK, ORD, ATL) for ground transport and regional distribution.

Benefit: Expect a spike in volume and rate premiums for truckers through early April, especially for time-sensitive loads and expedited service providers.

2. Warehousing & Inventory Redistribution = Middle-Mile Freight Opportunities

With uncertainty around export viability, some U.S. manufacturers and importers will opt to stockpile inventory in regional warehouses or third-party logistics centers. This creates:

  • Increased warehouse-to-DC (distribution center) freight as companies move goods into temporary storage before rerouting them for domestic use or alternative export destinations.
  • Reverse logistics and repositioning moves as SKUs originally bound for China are redirected to U.S. retailers or to ports for other overseas markets.

Benefit: Trucking firms specializing in LTL, regional haul, and dedicated contract carriage stand to gain from sustained demand in the domestic movement of stored or reallocated goods. 

3. Nearshoring and Supply Chain Diversification = Long-Term Freight Shifts

The tariffs (along with Vietnam’s 46% duty) are pushing many U.S. companies to rethink sourcing strategies.  China’s role as the dominant supplier may shrink as firms nearshore or relocate operations to:

  • Mexico and Central America: These regions are already seeing increased interest, which boosts cross-border trucking demand at key ports of entry like Laredo, El Paso, and Otay Mesa.
  • U.S.-based production: Some companies may accelerate reshoring, meaning more goods are produced and distributed domestically — a win for domestic OTR, final-mile, and specialized freight carriers.

Benefit: Cross-border and domestic trucking lanes may become more active and consistent, reducing reliance on ocean freight and supporting year-round volume growth.

4. Shift in Freight Type: FCL → LCL → Parcel & Expedite

Tariff uncertainty is leading shippers to adjust order sizes and timing. We’re seeing:

  • A move from full-container-load (FCL) to less-than-container-load (LCL) shipments.
  • A rise in expedited freight and small-batch ground delivery to spread risk and avoid being caught in future tariff changes.

Benefit: Carriers specializing in LTL, expedited freight, air cargo handling, and even white-glove final-mile services could see greater volume — particularly those integrated with 3PLs, freight forwarders, and e-commerce clients.

5. Mode Shifting and Modal Convergence

With increased costs on containerized ocean freight and sourcing changes, shippers are exploring multimodal strategies, creating new demand for:

  • Intermodal trucking (drayage from rail yards)
  • Air-to-ground logistics (especially as air freight surges pre-tariff)
  • Long-haul OTR bridging gaps between disrupted supply hubs

Benefit: Trucking companies that can integrate intermodal, drayage, and long-haul service offerings — or partner with rail and air logistics providers — will be at an advantage.

6. Price Volatility = Increased Margins for Agile Carriers

When freight markets face volatility, shippers often pay a premium for guaranteed capacity, reliability, and speed.  For trucking carriers that can:

  • Offer flexible routing and dispatching
  • Quickly pivot across regions, commodities, or customer verticals
  • Leverage real-time data and digital tools to optimize lane profitability

…there’s a good chance of benefiting from increased per-mile rates and stronger margin opportunities.

In Summary: The Tariff is a Freight Opportunity in Disguise

While tariffs complicate global trade, they create new demand nodes and transportation needs within the U.S. and across North America.  The trucking industry is poised to benefit through:

·        Pre-tariff shipment surges

·        Port and airport drayage demand

·        Domestic inventory movement

·        Cross-border growth

·        Modal shifts favoring trucking

·        Premium freight rates in high-demand lanes

Smart carriers will lean into this moment, leveraging agility, diversified service offerings, and strong customer relationships to maximize their share of this evolving freight landscape.


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